J. Randall Waterfield

Chairman At Waterfield Group 

Asked whether the troubled U.S. economy benefitted from further incentives such as the “cash for clunkers” program and tax breaks on home purchases, J. Randall Waterfield commented that the economy was not out of the woods yet. Positive (gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2009 was still weighed down by a severe six percent annualized decline (in terms of run rate) experienced in the first quarter of 2009. Mr. Waterfield did find green shoots of recovery occurring at the community banking level at which his firm operates.

J. Randall Waterfield also held out hope for positive GDP numbers throughout the second half of 2009, as catastrophic declines in the housing and auto industries had subsided. While he did not predict a return to full economic recovery, Mr. Waterfield noted that a cessation in declines in major areas of the economy could have a significant positive effect on overall GDP. However, he did caution that returning to positive GDP growth did not imply that there would not be significant pain for consumers. In particular, J. Randall Waterfield expected high unemployment to continue for an extended time, characterizing the process of moving through the bottom of a recession as one involving bankruptcies and high joblessness. Mr. Waterfield spoke of an official unemployment rate of 10 percent as masking a much larger shadow number of underemployed and long-term unemployed. Still, he noted that the first step toward economic productivity is a return to GDP growth, and that seemed to be occurring.

Mr. Waterfield lastly pegged inflation as a significant concern as the economy began to recover. He cited market movements in the direction of inflation as potentially presaging the direction of the broader economy. To access the full Fox News Network interview with J. Randall Waterfield, visit www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1yf84_DQJs.

Miami Beach, FL, US